Model‐informed health system reorganization during emergencies

The COVID‐19 pandemic presented the world to a novel class of problems highlighting distinctive features that rendered standard academic research and participatory processes less effective in properly informing public health interventions in a timely way. The urgency and rapidity of the emergency required tight integration of novel and high‐quality simulation modeling with public health policy implementation. By introducing flexibility and agility into standard participatory processes, we aligned the modeling effort with the imposed reality of the emergency to rapidly develop a regional system dynamics (SD) model integrating diverse streams of data that could reliably inform both health system restructuring and public health policy. Using Lombardy data, our SD model was able to generate early projections for the diffusion of the pandemic in neighbor Ticino. Later, it projected the timing and size of peak patient demand. Our work also supported the need for reorganization of the healthcare system and volume flexibility strategies increasing hospital capacity (e.g., intensive care unit [ICU] and ward beds, medical and nursing staff, and oxygen supply) in Ticino. Counterfactual analyses quantify the impact of the decisions supported by our interventions. Our research contributes to our understanding of volume flexibility strategies used by healthcare organizations during emergencies, highlighting the critical role played by available response time in the deployment of strategies that either prioritize critical services or leverage available resources. It also contributes to the literature on participatory systems modeling by describing a flexible and agile participatory process that was successfully deployed in a rapidly evolving high‐stakes emergency.

Changes in socioeconomic resources and mental health after the second COVID-19 wave (2020-2021): a longitudinal study in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: During the 2020/2021 winter, the labour market was under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Changes in socioeconomic resources during this period could have influenced individual mental health. This association may have been mitigated or exacerbated by subjective risk perceptions, such as perceived risk of getting infected with SARS-CoV-2 or perception of the national economic situation. Therefore, we aimed to determine if changes in financial resources and employment situation during and after the second COVID-19 wave were prospectively associated with depression, anxiety and stress, and whether perceptions of the national economic situation and of the risk of getting infected modified this association. METHODS: One thousand seven hundred fifty nine participants from a nation-wide population-based eCohort in Switzerland were followed between November 2020 and September 2021. Financial resources and employment status were assessed twice (Nov2020-Mar2021, May-Jul 2021). Mental health was assessed after the second measurement of financial resources and employment status, using the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS-21). We modelled DASS-21 scores with linear regression, adjusting for demographics, health status, social relationships and changes in workload, and tested interactions with subjective risk perceptions. RESULTS: We observed scores above thresholds for normal levels for 16% (95%CI = 15-18) of participants for depression, 8% (95%CI = 7-10) for anxiety, and 10% (95%CI = 9-12) for stress. Compared to continuously comfortable or sufficient financial resources, continuously precarious or insufficient resources were associated with worse scores for all outcomes. Increased financial resources were associated with higher anxiety. In the working-age group, shifting from full to part-time employment was associated with higher stress and anxiety. Perceiving the Swiss economic situation as worrisome was associated with higher anxiety in participants who lost financial resources or had continuously precarious or insufficient resources. CONCLUSION: This study confirms the association of economic stressors and mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic and highlights the exacerbating role of subjective risk perception on this association.

Seroprevalence trends of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and associated risk factors: a population-based study.

PURPOSE: We aimed to assess the seroprevalence trends of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in several Swiss cantons between May 2020 and September 2021 and investigate risk factors for seropositivity and their changes over time. METHODS: We conducted repeated population-based serological studies in different Swiss regions using a common methodology. We defined three study periods: May-October 2020 (period 1, prior to vaccination), November 2020-mid-May 2021 (period 2, first months of the vaccination campaign), and mid-May-September 2021 (period 3, a large share of the population vaccinated). We measured anti-spike IgG. Participants provided information on sociodemographic and socioeconomic characteristics, health status, and adherence to preventive measures. We estimated seroprevalence with a Bayesian logistic regression model and the association between risk factors and seropositivity with Poisson models. RESULTS: We included 13,291 participants aged 20 and older from 11 Swiss cantons. Seroprevalence was 3.7% (95% CI 2.1-4.9) in period 1, 16.2% (95% CI 14.4-17.5) in period 2, and 72.0% (95% CI 70.3-73.8) in period 3, with regional variations. In period 1, younger age (20-64) was the only factor associated with higher seropositivity. In period 3, being aged ≥ 65 years, with a high income, retired, overweight or obese or with other comorbidities, was associated with higher seropositivity. These associations disappeared after adjusting for vaccination status. Seropositivity was lower in participants with lower adherence to preventive measures, due to a lower vaccination uptake. CONCLUSIONS: Seroprevalence sharply increased over time, also thanks to vaccination, with some regional variations. After the vaccination campaign, no differences between subgroups were observed.

Trajectories of Seroprevalence and Neutralizing Activity of Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in Southern Switzerland between July 2020 and July 2021: An Ongoing, Prospective Population-Based Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic continues, and evidence on infection- and vaccine-induced immunity is key. We assessed COVID-19 immunity and the neutralizing antibody response to virus variants across age groups in the Swiss population. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a cohort study in representative community-dwelling residents aged five years or older in southern Switzerland (total population 353,343), and we collected blood samples in July 2020 (in adults only, N = 646), November-December 2020 (N = 1457), and June-July 2021 (N = 885). METHODS: We used a previously validated Luminex assay to measure antibodies targeting the spike (S) and the nucleocapsid (N) proteins of the virus and a high-throughput cell-free neutralization assay optimized for multiple spike protein variants. We calculated seroprevalence with a Bayesian logistic regression model accounting for the population's sociodemographic structure and the test performance, and we compared the neutralizing activity between vaccinated and convalescent participants across virus variants. RESULTS: The overall seroprevalence was 7.8% (95% CI: 5.4-10.4) by July 2020 and 20.2% (16.4-24.4) by December 2020. By July 2021, the overall seroprevalence increased substantially to 72.5% (69.1-76.4), with the highest estimates of 95.6% (92.8-97.8) among older adults, who developed up to 10.3 more antibodies via vaccination than after infection compared to 3.7 times more in adults. The neutralizing activity was significantly higher for vaccine-induced than infection-induced antibodies for all virus variants (all p values < 0.037). CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination chiefly contributed to the reduction in immunonaive individuals, particularly those in older age groups. Our findings on the greater neutralizing activity of vaccine-induced antibodies than infection-induced antibodies are greatly informative for future vaccination campaigns.

Prevalence and association of frailty with SARS-CoV-2 infection in older adults in Southern Switzerland-Findings from the Corona Immunitas Ticino Study.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is an age-associated state of increased vulnerability to stressors that strongly predicts poor health outcomes. Epidemiological evidence on frailty is limited during the COVID-19 pandemic, and whether frailty is associated with the risk of infection is unknown. OBJECTIVES: We derived a robust Frailty Index (FI) to measure the prevalence of frailty and its risk factors in community-dwelling older adults in Southern Switzerland (Ticino), and we explored the association between frailty and serologically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: In September 2020, we recruited a random sample of community-dwelling older adults (65 +) in the Corona Immunitas Ticino prospective cohort study (CIT) and assessed a variety of lifestyle and health characteristics. We selected 30 health-related variables, computed the Rockwood FI, and applied standard thresholds for robust (FI < 0.1), pre-frail (0.1 ≤ FI < 0.21), and frail (FI ≥ 0.21). RESULTS: Complete data for the FI was available for 660 older adults. The FI score ranged between zero (no frailty) and 0.59. The prevalence of frailty and pre-frailty were 10.3% and 48.2% respectively. The log-transformed FI score increased by age similarly in males and females, on average by 2.8% (p < 0.001) per one-year increase in age. Out of 481 participants with a valid serological test, 11.2% were seropositive to either anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgA or IgG. The frailty status and seropositivity were not statistically associated (p = 0.236). CONCLUSION: Advanced age increases the risk of frailty. The risk of COVID-19 infection in older adults may not differ by frailty status.

Residential exposure to greenspace and life satisfaction in times of COVID-19: a cross-sectional analysis of 9444 participants from a population-based study in Basel-Stadt and Basel-Landschaft.

BACKGROUND: Subjective well-being is an important target in the COVID-19 pandemic. Residential greenness may help cope with stress and hence influence subjective well-being during this mentally and physically challenging time. METHODS: We analysed the association between residential greenness and life satisfaction in 9,444 adults in the COVCO-Basel cohort. We assessed if the association is modified by age, sex, household income, financial worries, canton of residence, or month of study entry. In addition, we assessed if the association is attributed to specific types of greenspace or accessibility to greenspace. RESULTS: The association between residential greenness and life satisfaction varied by age groups, household income, and financial worries. Residential greenness was positively associated with life satisfaction in those with high household income and the least financially worried, and negatively associated with life satisfaction in the youngest age group (18-29 years) and the most financially worried. Living closer to a forest, but not to a park or an agricultural area, was associated with lower life satisfaction in the youngest age group. CONCLUSIONS: Residential greenness effects on life satisfaction vary according to sociodemographic characteristics. Living in a greener area does not benefit all dwellers in Basel and its region equally, with the most apparent benefit for those with high household income and without financial concerns.

Decision-making on COVID-19 vaccination: A qualitative study among health care and social workers caring for vulnerable individuals.

In January 2021, the Swiss government introduced the first COVID-19 vaccines and prioritized allocation to at-risk individuals and professionals working with them. Despite this opportunity, vaccine uptake among staff employed in retirement homes and institutes for people with disabilities was suboptimal. This study aimed to capture real-time decision-making about COVID-19 vaccine among staff employed in nursing homes and institutes for people with disabilities in Southern Switzerland. We conducted semi-structured phone-interviews with 25 staff employed in retirement homes and institutes for people with disabilities between February and May 2021, i.e., when participants had to decide whether they wanted to adhere to the priority vaccination programme. Among participants, 21 either signed up for the COVID-19 vaccination or were fully or partly vaccinated at the time of the interview. For most participants, the vaccination choice was a challenging process: information appeared to be lacking and conflicting; numerous moral principles were at stake and contradictory; the way vaccination was organized clashed with the health values to which respondents had been previously exposed; finally, the fear of discrimination for those who decided not to get vaccinated loomed over the vaccination choice. Participants decided for or against vaccination based on principles, traditions, emotions, and a reflexive assessment of the personal vs. collective benefit of the vaccination, the latter being the most common within the investigated sample. This study shows that deciding to get vaccinated against COVID-19 is a nuanced process and that individuals cannot simply be categorized as "novax" or "provax" based on their vaccination decision.

Why Vaccinate Against COVID-19? A Population-Based Survey in Switzerland.

Objectives: This study examined factors associated with COVID-19 vaccination intention at the very beginning of the vaccination campaign in a representative sample of the population in southern Switzerland. Methods: In March 2021, we measured vaccination intention, beliefs, attitudes, and trust in a sample of the Corona Immunitas Ticino study. Results: Of the 2681 participants, 1933 completed the questionnaire (response rate = 72%; 55% female; meanage = 41, SD = 24, rangeage = 5-91). Overall, 68% reported an intention to get vaccinated. Vaccination intention was higher in social/healthcare workers, and increased with age, trust in public health institutions, and confidence in the vaccine efficacy. Prior infection of a family member, predilection for waiting for more evidence on the safety and efficacy of the vaccine, and for alternative protective means were negatively associated with intention. Conclusion: In view of needs of COVID-19 vaccine boosters and of suboptimal vaccination coverage, our results have relevant public health implications and suggest that communication about vaccine safety and efficacy, and aims of vaccination programs, should be bi-directional, proportionate, and tailored to the concerns, expectations, and beliefs of different population subgroups.

Why Vaccinate Against COVID-19? A Population-Based Survey in Switzerland

Objectives: This study examined factors associated with COVID-19 vaccination intention at the very beginning of the vaccination campaign in a representative sample of the population in southern Switzerland. Methods: In March 2021, we measured vaccination intention, beliefs, attitudes, and trust in a sample of the Corona Immunitas Ticino study. Results: Of the 2681 participants, 1933 completed the questionnaire (response rate = 72%;55% female;meanage = 41, SD = 24, rangeage = 5–91). Overall, 68% reported an intention to get vaccinated. Vaccination intention was higher in social/healthcare workers, and increased with age, trust in public health institutions, and confidence in the vaccine efficacy. Prior infection of a family member, predilection for waiting for more evidence on the safety and efficacy of the vaccine, and for alternative protective means were negatively associated with intention. Conclusion: In view of needs of COVID-19 vaccine boosters and of suboptimal vaccination coverage, our results have relevant public health implications and suggest that communication about vaccine safety and efficacy, and aims of vaccination programs, should be bi-directional, proportionate, and tailored to the concerns, expectations, and beliefs of different population subgroups.

Corona Immunitas: study protocol of a nationwide program of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and seroepidemiologic studies in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: Seroprevalence studies to assess the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population and subgroups are key for evaluating mitigation and vaccination policies and for understanding the spread of the disease both on the national level and for comparison with the international community. METHODS: Corona Immunitas is a research program of coordinated, population-based, seroprevalence studies implemented by Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+). Over 28,340 participants, randomly selected and age-stratified, with some regional specificities will be included. Additional studies in vulnerable and highly exposed subpopulations are also planned. The studies will assess population immunological status during the pandemic. RESULTS: Phase one (first wave of pandemic) estimates from Geneva showed a steady increase in seroprevalence up to 10.8% (95% CI 8.2-13.9, n = 775) by May 9, 2020. Since June, Zurich, Lausanne, Basel City/Land, Ticino, and Fribourg recruited a total of 5973 participants for phase two thus far. CONCLUSIONS: Corona Immunitas will generate reliable, comparable, and high-quality serological and epidemiological data with extensive coverage of Switzerland and of several subpopulations, informing health policies and decision making in both economic and societal sectors. ISRCTN Registry: https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN18181860 .